地理情報学と地球統計学: 概要

Projection of Riverine Flooding on Government Healthcare Facilities in Peninsular Malaysia Due To Climate Change

Kamesh R, Bala S, Rafiza S, Nadia M, Zaki M, Marini M, Amri M, Nurul M, Huang YF, Anis K, Norlen M, Norbizura A, Rohaida I, Thahirahtul Z and Yazid K

Objective: Vulnerability of healthcare facilities (HCF’s) in Malaysia due to flooding from climate change impacts is understudied. This study aims to identify the flood prone government HCF’s due to climate change.

Methods: Projection of 100-year Return Period riverine flooding at baseline or current condition, 2030 and 2050 was done through hydrodynamic modelling. The location of government HCF’s in terms of longitude, latitude and elevation was determined by using the Geographic Information System and later overlaid with the flood maps produced by the National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia (NAHRIM). Projection of the 15 most vulnerable river basins in Peninsular Malaysia was done based on IPCCC SRES-AR4.

Results: The river basin flood extent map projections were done at Baseline, 2030 and 2050 associated with 100-year Return Period for Flood Depth Levels (FDL) of 0.01m-0.50m, 0.50-1.2m and >1.2m, respectively. The HCF’s were categorized as Community Health Clinics (CHC’s), Primary Health Clinics (PHC’s) and Hospitals. A total of 1268 CHC’s, 520 PHC’s and 82 Hospitals were included in this study. HCF’s in Sabah, Sarawak and Labuan were excluded. At Baseline, 23 CHC’s, 9 PHC’s and 1 hospital were projected to be flooded at Flood Depth Level (FDL) of 0.01-0.5m. FDL of 0.5-1.2m estimated 31 CHC’s, 7 PHC’s and 1 Hospital and FDL>1.2m estimated 54 CHC’s and 9 PHC’s being flooded. According to projections at 2030, FDL of 0.01-0.5m estimated 31 CHC’s, 9 PHC’s and 1 Hospital being flooded and FDL of 0.5-1.2m estimated 33 CHC’s, 9 PHC’s and 1 Hospital being affected.  FDL of >1.2m estimated 153 CHC’s, 9 PHC’s and 1 Hospital being affected. Flood projections at 2050 with FDL 0.01-0.5m estimated 24 CHC’s, 9 PHC’s and 1 Hospital being affected and FDL of 0.5m-1.2m affected 37 CHC’s, 7 PHC’s and 2 Hospitals. FDL>1.2m estimated 154 CHC’s, 51 PHC’s and 8 Hospitals being affected.

Conclusion: This study enables stakeholders to assess vulnerability of flooding and plan adaptation measures necessary in anticipation of the impact of climate change on riverine flooding in Malaysia.