免疫学的技術と感染症のジャーナル

Mathematical modeling of basic reproductive strength on COVID 19

MANSOOR H. ALSHEHRI1 ,FAISAL Z. DURAIHEM1 , R.KANDASAMY2

Objective: The rapid spread of the COVID-19 has become a global threat affecting almost every country in the world. As countries hit the peak of the epidemic, it is planned to move forward to new norms under different social conditions in order to mitigate the economic impact that the closure of all or part of the operations, businesses, universities, shops, etc. Under such circumstances, the use of mathematical models to assess the spreading risk of COVID-19 in different locations is an essential tool to assist staff in making informed decisions. We examine the epidemiological constants in the model, such as the transmigration rate and the basic reproductive number, using data of released cases. We thus estimate the act of the susceptible, exposed, or latency period in the signs of a COVID-19 infection. By this critical model extensive variety R0, has been utilized to assume the field of persons straight away contaminated by way of the contagious human and classified the depth of susceptible, exposed, and infected populations as soon as the infection is over, it can be at once used to measure the contaminated areas. Based on the strength of R0, susceptible, exposed, and infected people’s rate has been calculated via the Runge Kutta Felhberg method, Maple 18. By this investigation, the susceptible people’s infectious quotes from COVID 19 are strongly increased whereas the infected people’s rate moves up and down and the exposed people’s rate decelerates with increases of the basic reproductive number. Several scenarios have been considered to demonstrate the performance of the proposed model. The results showed that the simulations provided useful information in formulating strategies to reduce the risk of the spread of COVID-19 locally.