地理情報学と地球統計学: 概要

Development of a ThreeDimensional Analysis Software for Space-Time Epidemic Expansion Studies: GeoSpread

Eric Bruno Kabe M, Arsene Meying, Martin Luther Mfenjou

The study of the evolution of epidemics in space and time remains a sensitive subject which increasingly requires digital tools that can be used for space-time modeling of the risks of contagion. The present paper focuses on the development of a software called Geo Spread, whose main function is to produce spatiotemporal prediction models of contagion chances, following a previous field investigation. By the way this paper raises an issue about spatiotemporal covariance functions modeling. The software incorporates algorithms of spatiotemporal indicators modeling in background and was implemented on a synthetic database containing survey results. The surveys have been virtually conducted for 09 days, in some localities in the Adamawa region of Cameroon. Through this practical trial case, this paper presents in detail the features of the software’s project in development, as well as the theoretical elements used so far. The results showed that, the use of indicators function is appropriate to assess the chances of contagion in time and space. Especially since through these, it has been possible to assess spatial evolution for each of the 09 days of investigation and to make a prediction after 15 days. Finally, Geo Spread software still observes some limitations, but nevertheless, it can be properly listed as an instrument that can contribute to a better appreciation of response measures to the expansion of a rapidly spreading epidemic.